1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Nürnberg (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Nürnberg face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SpVgg Greuther Fürth to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 January 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 4–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 58% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.245 / defence 0.746 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 1. FC Nürnberg games / 37 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 61% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 61% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.32 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.245 / def 0.746 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 61% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (9 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 4W | Draws 3 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.25) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
61%
1.65
19%
5.19
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.61
1.29
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
2%
50.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.29 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 15W 11D 12L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 8D 19L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.47 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 5W 3D 11L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.39 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 15W 11D 12L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.95 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 9 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 47%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 68% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 26% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.