1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 2W 4D 0L across 6 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.67 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 1.17 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 50% versus Hansa Rostock 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Hansa Rostock 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.992 / defence 0.935 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.861 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.292. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 1. FC Nürnberg games / 6 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 35% | Hansa Rostock 25%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Hansa Rostock 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 33% | Hansa Rostock 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 35% | Hansa Rostock 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 / Hansa Rostock 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.992 / def 0.935 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.861 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hansa Rostock xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 September 2021 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 41% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.86x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
41%
2.45
35%
2.88
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.42
1.04
Hansa Rostock xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.04 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 4D 0L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — 1. FC Nürnberg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock in 67%.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.33 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.33 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 33% (Hansa Rostock) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 67% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 33%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 33% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 67% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Hansa Rostock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.04 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hansa Rostock landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 41% | Draw 35% | Hansa Rostock 25%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 50%, Hansa Rostock 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.