1. FC Magdeburg 0-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as 1. FC Magdeburg welcome SV Elversberg to Avnet Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at Avnet Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at Avnet Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Elversberg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SV Elversberg away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 0.70 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SV Elversberg 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 56% versus SV Elversberg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 47% | SV Elversberg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.74 xG and SV Elversberg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.900 / defence 0.948 | SV Elversberg attack 1.010 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.387. Data: 34 1. FC Magdeburg games / 34 SV Elversberg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 29%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | SV Elversberg 3.45. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | SV Elversberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.74 / SV Elversberg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.900 / def 0.948 | SV Elversberg attack 1.010 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SV Elversberg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 47% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.17
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.07
1.33
SV Elversberg xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
5%
19.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.33 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 9W 11D 14L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. 1. FC Magdeburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 15L across 34 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. SV Elversberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.12 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 6W 6D 5L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 62%.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Pre-Season
SV Elversberg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 12W 7D 15L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Elversberg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.41 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Magdeburg at 65%, SV Elversberg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 71% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 71% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 71% of SV Elversberg's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Magdeburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg finished level at 0-0 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.74 xG and SV Elversberg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against SV Elversberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 29%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 47%, SV Elversberg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.