1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host 1. FC Heidenheim at MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Magdeburg — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MDCC-Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 4L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1. FC Heidenheim — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 54% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 69% | 1. FC Heidenheim 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.650 / defence 1.286 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.871 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.278. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 1. FC Magdeburg games / 47 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 19% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 51%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1.96. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 50% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 19% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.650 / def 1.286 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.871 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Heidenheim xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 October 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 19% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 51% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
19%
5.16
30%
3.34
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.23
1.43
1. FC Heidenheim xG
5.16
19%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
21.59
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 15.4 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.43 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 1D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (6W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.54 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 1D 8L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, 1. FC Heidenheim 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 50% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Heidenheim in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 33% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 1-1 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 0.80 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.43 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.65 / defence 1.29 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.87 / defence 0.82, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 19% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 51%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 69%, 1. FC Heidenheim 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.