Valenciennes 0-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Valenciennes take on Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade du Hainaut to face Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.71 xG and Niort 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Niort attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Valenciennes games / 0 Niort games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 21% | Draw 41% | Niort 38%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Niort 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 21% | Draw 41% | Niort 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Valenciennes 0.71 / Niort 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Niort attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Niort xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Niort kick off?
Valenciennes vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Niort?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Niort.
Where is Valenciennes vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Niort part of?
Valenciennes vs Niort is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 21% chance of winning, Niort a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Valenciennes and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Niort in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valenciennes's attack at 0.85x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.85x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Niort xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.00 for Niort, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Pre-Season
Niort
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valenciennes
2
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 2, Niort have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Valenciennes 0-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Niort?
Valenciennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 1, as Valenciennes and Niort drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.71 xG and Niort 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Niort landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Niort attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 21% | Draw 41% | Niort 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.