Saint Etienne 1-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Saint Etienne take on Guingamp.

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Match Analysis

Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Saint Etienne have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Guingamp — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 1.60 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Saint Etienne's 30% BTTS rate and Guingamp's 30% (from Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Saint Etienne have won 1, Guingamp 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Saint Etienne 3–2 Guingamp — a Saint Etienne win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Guingamp 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Saint Etienne surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.82 xG and Guingamp 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.866 / defence 0.830 | Guingamp attack 0.863 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Guingamp bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Saint Etienne's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 54 games and Guingamp's last 54.

Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 33% | Draw 35% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.04 | Draw 2.82 | Guingamp 3.16. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.80 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).

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