Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.70 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–4 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Annecy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.55 xG and Annecy 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.223 / defence 0.945 | Annecy attack 1.033 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.179. Data: 27 Saint Etienne games / 61 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 27% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 3.70. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 50% | Annecy 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 27% | Annecy 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Saint Etienne 1.55 / Annecy 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.223 / def 0.945 | Annecy attack 1.033 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Annecy xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Annecy kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Saint Etienne 4 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Annecy part of?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 46% chance of winning, Annecy a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Record (5 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 1 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.22x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
46%
2.20
27%
3.66
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.70
1.15
Annecy xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.15 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 11D 27L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 25W 15D 21L from 61 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.31 PPG, Annecy on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (14W 5D 11L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 10W 6D 14L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.26 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 11D 27L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Annecy have gone 25W 15D 21L in their last 61 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Annecy away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.57 PPG; Annecy away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Annecy in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Annecy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 57%, Annecy 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Saint Etienne) and 47% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 43% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 47% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Annecy tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Annecy in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Annecy 4-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.55 xG and Annecy 1.15 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Annecy attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 46% | Draw 27% | Annecy 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Annecy 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.31 PPG, Annecy 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.