Rodez 1-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Nancy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade Paul Lignon — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Nancy's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Rodez) versus 0.70 (Nancy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rodez have won 1, Nancy 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Nancy in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 33% versus Nancy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 24% | Nancy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.10 xG and Nancy 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.720 / defence 1.175 | Nancy attack 0.632 / defence 1.638. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Rodez's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.638 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Rodez games / 33 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 42% | Draw 33% | Nancy 25%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Nancy 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 40% | Nancy 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 42% | Draw 33% | Nancy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Rodez 1.10 / Nancy 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.720 / def 1.175 | Nancy attack 0.632 / def 1.638 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Nancy xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Nancy kick off?
Rodez vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Nancy?
Rodez 1 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Rodez vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Nancy part of?
Rodez vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 42% chance of winning, Nancy a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Rodez and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Rodez and Nancy in?
Rodez (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Nancy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.72) and Nancy's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
42%
2.36
33%
3.03
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.87
0.77
Nancy xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
8%
12.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Rodez and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Rodez and 0.77 for Nancy, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez come into this having played 33 games, going 7W 12D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.70 PPG from 33 outings (5W 8D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.00 PPG, Nancy on 0.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rodez's home form reads 3W 8D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.44 points per game from 16 outings (1W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.76 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Nancy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 12D 14L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Nancy have gone 5W 8D 20L in their last 33 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Nancy away?
Rodez's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.06 PPG; Nancy away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Rodez or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nancy in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Nancy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rodez's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Nancy 1-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Nancy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 38%, Nancy 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Rodez and 44% for Nancy.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 44% of games; Nancy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rodez's recent matches and 56% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Rodez's recent games and 44% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Nancy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Nancy in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 34, as Rodez and Nancy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.10 xG and Nancy 0.77 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against Nancy attack 0.63 / defence 1.64, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 42% | Draw 33% | Nancy 25%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 24%, Nancy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.00 PPG, Nancy 0.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.