Rodez vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.10 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Rodez's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 70% and Guingamp 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.61 xG and Guingamp 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.160 / defence 1.202 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 42 Rodez games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 29%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 3.45. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Rodez 1.61 / Guingamp 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.160 / def 1.202 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Guingamp xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Guingamp a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (10 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 5 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.16) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.91
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.86
1.26
Guingamp xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
6%
16.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rodez and 1.26 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 18W 14D 11L from 43 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 19L across 43 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 11L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Rodez's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.70 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 75%, Guingamp at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rodez) and 65% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rodez's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rodez's matches and 65% of Guingamp's.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.