Rodez 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Guingamp.

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Fixture Analysis

Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Rodez have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Guingamp have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.50 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Rodez, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Rodez 0–1 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Rodez in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 58% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 44% | Guingamp 48%). Note also that Guingamp surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.55 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.335 / defence 1.131 | Guingamp attack 0.926 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Rodez carry an above-average attack rating of 1.335 — their 1.55 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Rodez's last 50 games and Guingamp's last 51.

Result probabilities: Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.18 | Draw 3.89 | Guingamp 3.52. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 70% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 50% (last 10 away games).

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