Rodez 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Paul Lignon. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia away from home this season: 2W 0D 7L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 33% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | Bastia 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.14 xG and Bastia 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.909 / defence 0.996 | Bastia attack 0.730 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Rodez games / 18 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 31% | Bastia 24%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 4.17. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 25% | Bastia 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 45% | Draw 31% | Bastia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Rodez 1.14 / Bastia 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.909 / def 0.996 | Bastia attack 0.730 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Rodez (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bastia xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Bastia kick off?
Rodez vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Rodez vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Bastia part of?
Rodez vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 45% chance of winning, Bastia a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Rodez and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Bastia in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.73x) against Rodez's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.22
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.90
0.76
Bastia xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Rodez and 0.76 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 7W 5D 6L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 4W 7D 7L from 18 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Rodez against 1.06 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 6L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Bastia in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Bastia have gone 4W 7D 7L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Bastia away?
Rodez's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.50 PPG; Bastia away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Rodez or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bastia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
4
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, Bastia have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Rodez 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Bastia?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 25%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rodez) and 50% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 38% of games; Bastia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Rodez's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rodez's recent games and 50% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Bastia tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Bastia finished level at 0-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.14 xG and Bastia 0.76 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Bastia attack 0.73 / defence 1.29, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 45% | Draw 31% | Bastia 24%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, Bastia 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.44 PPG, Bastia 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.