Rodez 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 0W 0D 3L from 3 Ligue 2 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Annecy trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rodez 0% | Annecy 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 33% | Annecy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.02 xG and Annecy 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.853 / defence 1.156 | Annecy attack 0.734 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Data: 41 Rodez games / 3 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 38% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 50% | Annecy 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 38% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Rodez 1.02 / Annecy 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.853 / def 1.156 | Annecy attack 0.734 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Rodez (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Annecy xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Rodez 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 38% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Annecy in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.85) and Annecy's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.90
0.89
Annecy xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Rodez and 0.89 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Rodez have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 0.33 PPG, Annecy on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Annecy have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Annecy in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Rodez go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rodez 0% BTTS, Annecy 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Rodez and 33% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 100% of games; Annecy in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rodez's recent matches and 33% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rodez's recent games and 33% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Annecy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 4, as Rodez and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.02 xG and Annecy 0.89 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Annecy attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 38% | Draw 32% | Annecy 31%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 33%, Annecy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 0.33 PPG, Annecy 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.