Rodez 1-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Annecy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off is Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rodez — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.90 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rodez have won 2, Annecy 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Rodez 2–1 Annecy — a Rodez win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 58% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 47% | Annecy 51%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.282 / defence 0.968 | Annecy attack 1.277 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Rodez carry an above-average attack rating of 1.282 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Annecy have an above-average attack rating of 1.277, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Rodez's last 72 games and Annecy's last 73.
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.45 | Draw 4.01 | Annecy 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 60% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 36 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Rodez 1.56 / Annecy 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.282 / def 0.968 | Annecy attack 1.277 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Annecy xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Annecy kick off?
Rodez vs Annecy kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Rodez 1 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Rodez vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Annecy part of?
Rodez vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 36) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Annecy a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rodez and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rodez vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.28) and Annecy's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 72 games and Annecy's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.45
25%
4.01
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.97
1.41
Annecy xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Rodez and 1.41 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 25W 24D 23L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 22W 21D 29L from 72 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 36 home games (13W 13D 10L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 8W 11D 17L from their last 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
Rodez (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Annecy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 25W 24D 23L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 22W 21D 29L in their last 72 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Annecy away?
Rodez's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Rodez or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won Rodez 5-1 Annecy.
Rodez's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Annecy?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 5, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Annecy 2-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Annecy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 61%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 61% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rodez's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rodez and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 61% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Rodez's recent matches and 67% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Rodez 1-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.41 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Annecy outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.28 / defence 0.97 against Annecy attack 1.28 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 25% | Annecy 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 47%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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