Rodez 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Amiens.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Rodez and Amiens meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Rodez (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Amiens have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rodez, 2 for Amiens and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2024, ended Rodez 1–2 Amiens — a Amiens win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 64% versus Amiens 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 62% | Amiens 39%). Note also that Amiens surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.66 xG and Amiens 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.023 / defence 1.338 | Amiens attack 0.846 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Amiens's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Rodez's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 61 games and Amiens's last 61.

Result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 24% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.11 | Draw 4.13 | Amiens 3.52. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 70% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).

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