RED Star FC 93 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Reims travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Bauer — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Bauer this season.
Reims — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.80 PPG, Reims 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reims in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 53% versus Reims 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 49% | Reims 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.55 xG and Reims 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.004 / defence 1.093 | Reims attack 1.336 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.186. Reims bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing RED Star FC 93's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Reims have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 RED Star FC 93 games / 16 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 23% | Reims 42%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Reims 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 70% | Reims 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 23% | Reims 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.55 / Reims 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.004 / def 1.093 | Reims attack 1.336 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Reims (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Reims xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Reims kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Reims kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Reims is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 35% chance of winning, Reims a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Reims in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Reims (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 1.00x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
35%
2.88
23%
4.35
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
3.29
1.73
Reims xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.73 for Reims, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93's recent record stands at 17W 15D 17L from 49 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.35 PPG, Reims on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, RED Star FC 93 have managed 9W 7D 8L from 24 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.29 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Reims in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Reims have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Reims away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.42 PPG; Reims away: 1.08 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Reims in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and Reims runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Reims have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Reims won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RED Star FC 93 1-4 Reims.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 58%, Reims 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Reims tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Reims in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RED Star FC 93's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 17, as RED Star FC 93 and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.55 xG and Reims 1.73 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Reims attack 1.34 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 23% | Reims 42%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Reims 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.35 PPG, Reims 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.