RED Star FC 93 vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAU (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RED Star FC 93 face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees PAU travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Bauer — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PAU — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 3 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 53% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 53% | PAU 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.94 xG and PAU 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.780 / defence 1.239 | PAU attack 1.099 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 RED Star FC 93 games / 45 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 19% | Draw 23% | PAU 59%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 1.69. The model has a clear lean to PAU (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 19% | Draw 23% | PAU 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.94 / PAU 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.780 / def 1.239 | PAU attack 1.099 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: PAU (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.85
PAU xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 19% chance of winning, PAU a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 3W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.78) and PAU's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
19%
5.36
23%
4.43
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.79
1.85
PAU xG
5.36
19%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
34.07
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.85 for PAU, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 12D 13L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.44 PPG from 45 outings (18W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.60 PPG, PAU on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 8W 8D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.42 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 games (1.60 PPG), while PAU have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.45 PPG; PAU away: 1.59 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 54%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 64% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PAU in 32%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 64% of PAU's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and PAU tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, PAU in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.