RED Star FC 93 2-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Nancy meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nancy have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nancy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: RED Star FC 93 1W, Nancy 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Nancy — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 46% versus Nancy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Nancy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG and Nancy 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.900 / defence 1.218 | Nancy attack 0.785 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Data: 55 RED Star FC 93 games / 22 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Nancy 34%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Nancy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: RED Star FC 93 60% | Nancy 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Nancy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.19 / Nancy 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.900 / def 1.218 | Nancy attack 0.785 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nancy xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy?
RED Star FC 93 2 - 1 Nancy.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, Nancy a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Nancy 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Nancy in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Nancy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.90x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.79x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 55/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.53
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.31
1.12
Nancy xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.12 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 8D 5L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (7W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Nancy in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Nancy have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Nancy away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.27 PPG; Nancy away: 1.09 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Nancy in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 2-1 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Nancy?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nancy see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 64%, Nancy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (RED Star FC 93) and 64% (Nancy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nancy in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of RED Star FC 93's games and 54% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 64% of Nancy's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Nancy tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nancy in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Nancy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Nancy 2-1 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.19 xG and Nancy 1.12 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.90 / defence 1.22 against Nancy attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Nancy 34%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.