RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Guingamp away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RED Star FC 93's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, RED Star FC 93 have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Guingamp managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 4–0 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RED Star FC 93 and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Guingamp 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 48% | Guingamp 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.013 / defence 1.040 | Guingamp attack 0.951 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.174. Data: 64 RED Star FC 93 games / 65 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Guingamp 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.36 / Guingamp 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.013 / def 1.040 | Guingamp attack 0.951 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Guingamp xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 3 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 40% chance of winning, Guingamp a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): RED Star FC 93 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (1.01) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.95x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.32
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Guingamp xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.16 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 20D 22L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 25W 14D 25L from 64 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.39 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (12W 11D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 6D 15L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 22W 20D 22L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 25W 14D 25L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.47 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.22 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Guingamp in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 53%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 62% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RED Star FC 93's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Guingamp 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-2 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 40% | Draw 30% | Guingamp 30%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Guingamp 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.34 PPG, Guingamp 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.