Quevilly 1-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Quevilly welcome Metz to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Metz's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Quevilly's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 0, Metz 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Metz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 38% versus Metz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 38% | Metz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.06 xG and Metz 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.088 / defence 0.887 | Metz attack 1.291 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.035. Metz have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Quevilly games / 27 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 32% | Metz 37%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Metz 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Metz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 31% | Draw 32% | Metz 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Quevilly 1.06 / Metz 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.088 / def 0.887 | Metz attack 1.291 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Metz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Metz xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Metz kick off?
Quevilly vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Metz?
Quevilly 1 - 2 Metz.
Where is Quevilly vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Metz part of?
Quevilly vs Metz is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 31% chance of winning, Metz a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Quevilly and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Metz 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Metz in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Metz (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.12
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
Metz xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.19 for Metz, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 21W 18D 26L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz's form line: 18W 22D 25L from 65 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.25 PPG, Metz on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (10W 13D 9L).
On the road, Metz have gone 9W 9D 14L from 32 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Metz in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 21W 18D 26L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Metz have gone 18W 22D 25L in their last 65 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Metz away?
Quevilly's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.34 PPG; Metz away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Metz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Metz runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Quevilly
0
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Metz?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Quevilly 1-2 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Metz 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Quevilly) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 34% of games; Metz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 41% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Quevilly's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Metz tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Metz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Metz edge out Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.06 xG and Metz 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.09 / defence 0.89 against Metz attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 31% | Draw 32% | Metz 37%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 38%, Metz 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.25 PPG, Metz 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.