Quevilly 1-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Quevilly face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Quevilly welcome Estac Troyes to Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Quevilly — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Quevilly at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Quevilly) versus 1.50 (Estac Troyes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Quevilly have won 0, Estac Troyes 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Quevilly 2–2 Estac Troyes — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Quevilly in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Estac Troyes 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 47% | Estac Troyes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.05 xG and Estac Troyes 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.810 / defence 0.977 | Estac Troyes attack 0.599 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.599 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Data: built from Quevilly's last 66 games and Estac Troyes's last 28.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 21%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.24 | Draw 2.90 | Estac Troyes 4.77. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.63 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Quevilly's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Quevilly 50% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Quevilly 1.05 / Estac Troyes 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.810 / def 0.977 | Estac Troyes attack 0.599 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Estac Troyes xG
31%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Quevilly vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Estac Troyes?
Quevilly 1 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Quevilly vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Estac Troyes part of?
Quevilly vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 45% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Quevilly and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Quevilly vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.81) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 66 games and Estac Troyes's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
45%
2.24
34%
2.90
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.68
0.63
Estac Troyes xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.63 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Quevilly come into this having played 66 games, going 17W 26D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.88 PPG from 66 outings (12W 22D 32L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.17 PPG, Estac Troyes on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Quevilly's home form reads 8W 14D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.66 points per game from their last 32 away games (4W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Quevilly (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Quevilly vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 17W 26D 23L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 22D 32L in their last 66 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Estac Troyes away?
Quevilly's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.19 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.66 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Estac Troyes?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Quevilly 1-1 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 59%, Estac Troyes 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Quevilly) and 62% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 34% of games; Estac Troyes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Quevilly's games and 59% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Quevilly and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Quevilly's matches and 62% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Quevilly and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Quevilly's recent matches and 69% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Estac Troyes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.05 xG and Estac Troyes 0.63 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against Estac Troyes attack 0.60 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 45% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 21%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 47%, Estac Troyes 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.17 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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