Quevilly 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Bastia meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Quevilly, 1.50 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Quevilly, 2 for Bastia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 0–3 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 44% | Bastia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.51 xG and Bastia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.166 / defence 1.088 | Bastia attack 0.946 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 0.982. Data: 55 Quevilly games / 55 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 49% | Draw 26% | Bastia 25%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 4.00. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 60% | Bastia 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 49% | Draw 26% | Bastia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Quevilly 1.51 / Bastia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.166 / def 1.088 | Bastia attack 0.946 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.112 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Bastia xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Bastia kick off?
Quevilly vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Quevilly 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Quevilly vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Bastia part of?
Quevilly vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 49% chance of winning, Bastia a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Quevilly and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Bastia 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in?
Quevilly (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.95x) against Quevilly's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.86
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.52
1.01
Bastia xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.01 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 15D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.27 PPG from 55 outings (17W 19D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Quevilly against 1.27 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 8W 10D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.98 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Bastia in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Bastia have gone 17W 19D 19L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Bastia away?
Quevilly's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.26 PPG; Bastia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 48%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Quevilly) and 44% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 37% of games; Bastia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Quevilly's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Quevilly's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Bastia tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bastia in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.51 xG and Bastia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Bastia attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 49% | Draw 26% | Bastia 25%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 44%, Bastia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.20 PPG, Bastia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.