PAU 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (PAU) versus 1.50 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for PAU, 2 for Guingamp and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–4 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Guingamp 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 39% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 0.76 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.727 / defence 0.984 | Guingamp attack 0.970 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.067. PAU's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 PAU games / 69 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 41%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Guingamp 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — PAU's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 30% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 27% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG PAU 0.76 / Guingamp 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.727 / def 0.984 | Guingamp attack 0.970 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Guingamp xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Guingamp?
PAU 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 27% chance of winning, Guingamp a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are PAU and Guingamp in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.06
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
PAU xG
Total xG
1.78
1.02
Guingamp xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 17.2 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for PAU and 1.02 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, PAU have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 23W 17D 29L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 26W 22D 21L from 69 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.25 PPG, Guingamp on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (14W 8D 12L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 13D 9L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Guingamp
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 23W 17D 29L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 22D 21L in their last 69 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.47 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 38%, Guingamp 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PAU) and 38% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of PAU's recent matches and 53% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PAU's recent games and 38% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Guingamp tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 0.76 xG and Guingamp 1.02 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Guingamp attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 27% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 41%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 39%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.25 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.