PAU vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Guingamp travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Nouste Camp this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAU carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for PAU, 5 for Guingamp and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 60% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.35 xG and Guingamp 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.974 / defence 0.956 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 PAU games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 44% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Guingamp 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 44% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG PAU 1.35 / Guingamp 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.974 / def 0.956 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: PAU (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Guingamp xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Guingamp kick off?
PAU vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 April 2027 at Nouste Camp.
Where is PAU vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Guingamp part of?
PAU vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 44% chance of winning, Guingamp a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAU and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
Record (10 meetings): PAU 4W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 5W.
What form are PAU and Guingamp in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
PAU's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.49
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
PAU xG
Total xG
2.35
1.00
Guingamp xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for PAU and 1.00 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, PAU have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 16W 11D 16L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.37 PPG, Guingamp on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Guingamp in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Guingamp away?
PAU's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.14 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 57%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for PAU and 62% for Guingamp. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of PAU's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAU vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of PAU's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do PAU and Guingamp tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.