PAU vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in PAU's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — PAU have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dijon in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours PAU, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Dijon — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with PAU winning.
The historical record gives PAU a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 25% versus Dijon 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 25% | Dijon 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.05 xG and Dijon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.782 / defence 1.047 | Dijon attack 0.881 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. PAU's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 PAU games / 4 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 33% | Dijon 36%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Dijon 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAU (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PAU 60% | Dijon 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 31% | Draw 33% | Dijon 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG PAU 1.05 / Dijon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.782 / def 1.047 | Dijon attack 0.881 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Dijon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dijon xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dijon kick off?
PAU vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Nouste Camp.
Where is PAU vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Dijon part of?
PAU vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 31% chance of winning, Dijon a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAU and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
Record (5 meetings): PAU 4W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are PAU and Dijon in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.88x) against PAU's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
31%
3.22
33%
3.06
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
PAU xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Dijon xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for PAU and 1.16 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, PAU have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Dijon in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dijon in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PAU have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
PAU
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dijon?
From 5 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Dijon 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dijon?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 25%, Dijon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for PAU and 25% for Dijon.
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of PAU's recent matches and 75% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of PAU's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Dijon tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dijon in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.