Paris FC 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Guingamp meet at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Charléty — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Paris FC against 1.10 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus Guingamp 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 41% | Guingamp 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.17 xG and Guingamp 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.999 / defence 1.019 | Guingamp attack 1.019 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Data: 62 Paris FC games / 63 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 50% | Guingamp 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Paris FC 1.17 / Guingamp 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.999 / def 1.019 | Guingamp attack 1.019 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Guingamp kick off?
Paris FC vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Paris FC 1 - 2 Guingamp.
Where is Paris FC vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Guingamp part of?
Paris FC vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Paris FC and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.02x) against Paris FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.12
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Guingamp xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.04 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris FC come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 17D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.41 PPG from 63 outings (23W 20D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Paris FC against 1.41 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Paris FC's home form reads 14W 10D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.42 points per game from 31 outings (11W 11D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 60%.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 28W 17D 18L in their last 63 games (1.60 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 20D 20L in their last 63 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Guingamp away?
Paris FC's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.68 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guingamp in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Guingamp 0-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Guingamp?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 52%, Guingamp 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Paris FC) and 39% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Paris FC's recent matches and 52% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Paris FC's recent games and 39% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Guingamp tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Paris FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Paris FC 1-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.17 xG and Guingamp 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 37% | Draw 32% | Guingamp 31%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 41%, Guingamp 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.60 PPG, Guingamp 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.