Paris FC 1-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Paris FC's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Paris FC have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Caen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Caen away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Paris FC 2W, Caen 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 52% versus Caen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 40% | Caen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.38 xG and Caen 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.205 / defence 0.927 | Caen attack 1.060 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.110. Data: 42 Paris FC games / 42 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 43% | Draw 27% | Caen 30%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | Caen 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 43% | Draw 27% | Caen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Paris FC 1.38 / Caen 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.205 / def 0.927 | Caen attack 1.060 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Caen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Caen kick off?
Paris FC vs Caen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Caen?
Paris FC 1 - 1 Caen.
Where is Paris FC vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Caen part of?
Paris FC vs Caen is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 43% chance of winning, Caen a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Paris FC and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Caen?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Caen in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Caen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.21) and Caen's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Caen's attack (1.06x) against Paris FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.72
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.47
1.09
Caen xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.09 for Caen, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 20W 12D 10L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Paris FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen's form line: 16W 12D 14L from 42 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Paris FC against 1.43 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (12W 7D 2L).
On the road, Caen have gone 5W 9D 7L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.40 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Caen in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Caen have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Caen away?
Paris FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Caen away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Caen in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Paris FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
1
Draws
2
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 5, Caen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Paris FC 4-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Caen?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Caen see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 52%, Caen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Paris FC) and 33% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Caen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Paris FC's recent matches and 52% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Paris FC's recent games and 33% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Caen tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Caen in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Caen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 5, as Paris FC and Caen drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.38 xG and Caen 1.09 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Caen attack 1.06 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 43% | Draw 27% | Caen 30%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 40%, Caen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.71 PPG, Caen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.