Paris FC 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stade Charléty this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Annecy have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Paris FC against 1.30 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Paris FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 49% | Annecy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 2.18 xG and Annecy 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.970 | Annecy attack 0.904 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.148. Annecy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.508 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Paris FC games / 37 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 64% | Draw 20% | Annecy 16%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Annecy 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 40% | Annecy 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 64% | Draw 20% | Annecy 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Paris FC 2.18 / Annecy 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.098 / def 0.970 | Annecy attack 0.904 / def 1.508 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Annecy xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Annecy kick off?
Paris FC vs Annecy kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Paris FC vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Annecy part of?
Paris FC vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 64% chance of winning, Annecy a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Paris FC and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Annecy in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.90x) against Paris FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.03
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.01
Annecy xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
2%
54.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.01 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 10D 13L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (11W 12D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Paris FC against 1.22 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Paris FC's home form reads 7W 3D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (2W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Annecy's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.05 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Annecy in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 14W 10D 13L in their last 37 games (1.41 PPG), while Annecy have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Annecy away?
Paris FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Annecy away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Annecy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Annecy?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 50%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Paris FC and 61% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Annecy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Paris FC's matches and 61% of Annecy's.
Do Paris FC and Annecy tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Annecy in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.18 xG and Annecy 1.01 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.97 against Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.51, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 64% | Draw 20% | Annecy 16%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Annecy 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.41 PPG, Annecy 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.