Paris FC 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Amiens at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Paris FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Amiens, with 3 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Paris FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus Amiens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.45 xG and Amiens 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.078 | Amiens attack 1.057 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.055. Data: 55 Paris FC games / 55 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 70% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Paris FC 1.45 / Amiens 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.988 / def 1.078 | Amiens attack 1.057 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Amiens xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Amiens kick off?
Paris FC vs Amiens kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Paris FC vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Amiens part of?
Paris FC vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 42% chance of winning, Amiens a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
Record (7 meetings): Paris FC 4W | Draws 3 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in?
Paris FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Amiens xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.20 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 25W 16D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 19W 19D 17L from 55 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.65 PPG, Amiens on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Amiens in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 25W 16D 14L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 19D 17L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Amiens away?
Paris FC's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.85 PPG; Amiens away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Amiens in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Amiens runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Amiens?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 58%, Amiens 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Paris FC) and 42% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Amiens in 31%; Amiens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Paris FC's recent matches and 38% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Paris FC's recent games and 42% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Amiens tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Amiens in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.45 xG and Amiens 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.65 PPG, Amiens 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.