Niort 1-3 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Nancy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Nancy at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's away record: 0W 3D 4L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Niort carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Niort in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Nancy in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 29% versus Nancy 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 43% | Nancy 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.34 xG and Nancy 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.019 / defence 1.062 | Nancy attack 0.686 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Niort games / 14 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 51% | Draw 28% | Nancy 21%. Fair-value odds: Niort 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Nancy 4.76. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 17% | Nancy 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 51% | Draw 28% | Nancy 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Niort 1.34 / Nancy 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.019 / def 1.062 | Nancy attack 0.686 / def 1.439 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Niort (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Nancy xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Nancy kick off?
Niort vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Nancy?
Niort 1 - 3 Nancy.
Where is Niort vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Nancy part of?
Niort vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 51% chance of winning, Nancy a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Niort and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Nancy in?
Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Nancy (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Niort's attack rating (1.02) and Nancy's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.53
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Niort xG
Total xG
2.08
0.74
Nancy xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
5%
18.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Niort and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Niort and 0.74 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Niort come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 3D 5L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.64 PPG from 14 outings (1W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Niort's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Niort are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.64 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Niort have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Nancy in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Nancy have gone 1W 6D 7L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Nancy away?
Niort's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.67 PPG; Nancy away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Niort or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nancy in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Niort and Nancy runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Niort
0
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Nancy have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Nancy 0-2 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Niort 17% BTTS, Nancy 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Niort and 17% for Nancy.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 50% of games; Nancy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Niort's recent matches and 50% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Niort's recent games and 17% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Nancy tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nancy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nancy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Niort 1-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.34 xG and Nancy 0.74 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Nancy attack 0.69 / defence 1.44, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 51% | Draw 28% | Nancy 21%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Nancy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 43%, Nancy 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.