Niort 2-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Niort at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Dunkerque travel to Stade René Gaillard to take on Niort. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 February 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Stade René Gaillard this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Niort carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Niort, 0 for Dunkerque and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Niort winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Niort in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 35% versus Dunkerque 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 50% | Dunkerque 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.51 xG and Dunkerque 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.137 / defence 1.162 | Dunkerque attack 0.816 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.000. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Niort games / 21 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 50% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 23%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 4.35. Niort hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 33% | Dunkerque 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 50% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Niort 1.51 / Dunkerque 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.137 / def 1.162 | Dunkerque attack 0.816 / def 1.384 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Niort (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Dunkerque xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Dunkerque kick off?
Niort vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Dunkerque?
Niort 2 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Niort vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Dunkerque part of?
Niort vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 50% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Niort and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Niort and Dunkerque in?
Niort (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Niort's attack at 1.14x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
50%
2.02
28%
3.62
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Niort xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
Dunkerque xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
19.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Niort and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Niort and 0.95 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 4D 7L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Niort carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Niort's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.75 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Dunkerque away?
Niort's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.78 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Niort or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Niort
0
Draws
0
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Dunkerque?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 2, Dunkerque have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2022, when Niort 2-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Dunkerque?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 33%, Dunkerque 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Niort) and 67% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 33% of games; Dunkerque in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Niort's recent matches and 56% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Niort's matches and 67% of Dunkerque's.
Do Niort and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Dunkerque 2-0 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.51 xG and Dunkerque 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Dunkerque attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 50% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 23%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 50%, Dunkerque 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dunkerque's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Niort (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.