Niort 0-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Auxerre at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Niort at 1.40 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Niort have won 0, Auxerre 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Niort in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 33% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 46% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.13 xG and Auxerre 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 1.054 / defence 0.949 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.012. Data: 24 Niort games / 24 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 42% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 42% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Niort 1.13 / Auxerre 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 1.054 / def 0.949 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.087 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: Niort (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Auxerre xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Auxerre kick off?
Niort vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Auxerre?
Niort 0 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Niort vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Auxerre part of?
Niort vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 42% chance of winning, Auxerre a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Niort and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Niort and Auxerre in?
Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Niort's attack rating (1.05) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.09
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Niort xG
Total xG
1.95
0.82
Auxerre xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
8%
12.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Niort and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Niort and 0.82 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 5D 9L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.46 PPG, Auxerre on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Niort's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Auxerre in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 10W 5D 9L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 9D 5L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Auxerre away?
Niort's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.82 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Niort or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Auxerre in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Niort
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Niort 0-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 27%, Auxerre 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Niort) and 36% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Auxerre in 46%; Niort have failed to score in 36% of games; Auxerre in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Niort's recent matches and 46% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Niort's recent games and 36% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Niort 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Niort 0-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.13 xG and Auxerre 0.82 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Niort fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 42% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 46%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.46 PPG, Auxerre 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.