Nimes 0-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Nimes welcome Bastia to Stade des Costières. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Costières: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Nimes) versus 1.30 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nimes register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bastia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nimes, 0 for Bastia and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nimes trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 51% versus Bastia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 57% | Bastia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.22 xG and Bastia 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.051 / defence 1.487 | Bastia attack 0.850 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Nimes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Nimes games / 37 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 27% | Bastia 40%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 80% | Bastia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 32% | Draw 27% | Bastia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Nimes 1.22 / Bastia 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.051 / def 1.487 | Bastia attack 0.850 / def 1.222 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Bastia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Bastia kick off?
Nimes vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Bastia?
Nimes 0 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Nimes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Bastia part of?
Nimes vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 32% chance of winning, Bastia a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nimes and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Nimes and Bastia in?
Nimes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bastia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nimes's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.68
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.60
1.39
Bastia xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nimes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Nimes and 1.39 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nimes's recent record stands at 14W 7D 16L from 37 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 12L across 37 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.32 PPG, Bastia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nimes are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.97 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 14W 7D 16L in their last 37 games (1.32 PPG), while Bastia have gone 9W 16D 12L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Bastia away?
Nimes's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.22 PPG; Bastia away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Nimes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bastia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nimes and Bastia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nimes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nimes
2
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 0, Bastia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Bastia 4-2 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 67%, Bastia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Nimes) and 44% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nimes's games and 56% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Nimes's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Bastia tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bastia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Nimes 0-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.22 xG and Bastia 1.39 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nimes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.05 / defence 1.49 against Bastia attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 32% | Draw 27% | Bastia 40%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 57%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.32 PPG, Bastia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.