Nimes 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nimes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Auxerre meet at Stade des Costières in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nimes have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nimes at Stade des Costières this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Nimes, 1.80 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Nimes, 0 for Auxerre and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nimes — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 50% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 57% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.08 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.046 / defence 1.348 | Auxerre attack 1.072 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Data: 28 Nimes games / 28 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 42%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Nimes 70% | Auxerre 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade des Costières • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Nimes 1.08 / Auxerre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.046 / def 1.348 | Auxerre attack 1.072 / def 1.057 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Auxerre xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Auxerre kick off?
Nimes vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade des Costières.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Auxerre?
Nimes 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Nimes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Costières.
What competition is Nimes vs Auxerre part of?
Nimes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 30% chance of winning, Auxerre a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nimes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Nimes 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Nimes and Auxerre in?
Nimes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nimes's attack at 1.05x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.07x) against Nimes's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.64
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.41
1.32
Auxerre xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nimes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nimes and 1.32 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nimes come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 6D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Nimes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nimes's home form reads 5W 4D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.86 points per game from 14 outings (7W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nimes are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.57 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 14W 9D 5L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.36 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Nimes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Auxerre in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nimes
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Nimes have won 0, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2022, when Nimes 1-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 64%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nimes) and 43% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 43%; Nimes have failed to score in 36% of games; Auxerre in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nimes's games and 50% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nimes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Nimes's recent games and 43% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Nimes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Nimes 1-2 at Stade des Costières, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.08 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.05 / defence 1.35 against Auxerre attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 42%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 57%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.