Nancy 0-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Marcel-Picot plays host to Nancy versus Toulouse in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nancy have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Nancy register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Toulouse in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.02 xG and Toulouse 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.980 / defence 1.150 | Toulouse attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.902 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Nancy games / 1 Toulouse games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 35% | Toulouse 40%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Toulouse 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 25% | Draw 35% | Toulouse 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Nancy 1.02 / Toulouse 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.980 / def 1.150 | Toulouse attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.902 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Toulouse xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Toulouse kick off?
Nancy vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Toulouse?
Nancy 0 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Nancy vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Toulouse part of?
Nancy vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 25% chance of winning, Toulouse a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nancy and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nancy and Toulouse in?
Nancy (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Toulouse (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.98) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.85x) against Nancy's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
25%
4.07
35%
2.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.33
Toulouse xG
4.07
25%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nancy and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nancy and 1.33 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nancy's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nancy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Toulouse in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2022, when Toulouse 4-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nancy's games and 100% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nancy vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nancy's matches and 100% of Toulouse's.
Do Nancy and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Nancy 0-4 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.02 xG and Toulouse 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.33 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 25% | Draw 35% | Toulouse 40%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 100%, Toulouse 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nancy managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.