Metz 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Metz take on Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Le Havre at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Saint-Symphorien. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Saint-Symphorien this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Metz at 2.20 PPG versus Le Havre's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Metz, 1 for Le Havre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 44% versus Le Havre 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Metz 44% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 0.74 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.890 / defence 0.872 | Le Havre attack 0.967 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.032. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 26 Metz games / 64 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 38% | Le Havre 35%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | Le Havre 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.61. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.61 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Metz's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Metz 30% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Monday 13 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 27% | Draw 38% | Le Havre 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 32% | xG Metz 0.74 / Le Havre 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.890 / def 0.872 | Le Havre attack 0.967 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Metz xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Le Havre xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Le Havre kick off?
Metz vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 March 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Metz 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Metz vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Le Havre part of?
Metz vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 27% chance of winning, Le Havre a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Metz and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Metz and Le Havre in?
Metz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.89x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.68
38%
2.63
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Metz xG
Total xG
1.61
0.87
Le Havre xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.14
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
17%
6.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Metz and 0.87 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Metz's recent record stands at 18W 21D 25L from 64 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 28W 21D 15L across 64 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Metz have managed 9W 12D 11L from 32 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 13W 12D 7L across 32 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.16 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 18W 21D 25L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 28W 21D 15L in their last 64 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.22 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Metz or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Le Havre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Metz's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Metz
4
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 47%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Metz) and 34% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%; Metz have failed to score in 34% of games; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Metz's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Metz's recent games and 34% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Metz and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 27, as Metz and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.74 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 1.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Le Havre attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 27% | Draw 38% | Le Havre 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 44%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.