Le Havre 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and PAU meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
PAU (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Le Havre lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus PAU 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | PAU 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.28 xG and PAU 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.873 / defence 0.985 | PAU attack 0.923 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Le Havre games / 40 PAU games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 44% | Draw 31% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | PAU 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 44% | Draw 31% | PAU 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Le Havre 1.28 / PAU 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.873 / def 0.985 | PAU attack 0.923 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.90
PAU xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs PAU kick off?
Le Havre vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs PAU?
Le Havre 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Le Havre vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs PAU part of?
Le Havre vs PAU is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 44% chance of winning, PAU a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Le Havre and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Le Havre and PAU in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.92x) against Le Havre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
44%
2.27
31%
3.24
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.17
0.90
PAU xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.90 for PAU, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 12D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (14W 8D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Le Havre against 1.25 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (4W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and PAU in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or PAU away?
Le Havre's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.20 PPG; PAU away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Le Havre or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, PAU in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when PAU 0-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and PAU?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PAU see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 40%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Le Havre) and 50% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 40% of games; PAU in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and PAU tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAU in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and PAU finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.28 xG and PAU 0.90 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against PAU attack 0.92 / defence 1.38, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 44% | Draw 31% | PAU 25%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, PAU 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.27 PPG, PAU 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.