Le Havre 2-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Dijon meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dijon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Le Havre's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Dijon 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 20% | Dijon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.07 xG and Dijon 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.959 / defence 1.009 | Dijon attack 0.748 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Le Havre games / 10 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 37% | Dijon 24%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.56 | Draw 2.70 | Dijon 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 60% | Dijon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 39% | Draw 37% | Dijon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Le Havre 1.07 / Dijon 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.959 / def 1.009 | Dijon attack 0.748 / def 1.284 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dijon xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Dijon kick off?
Le Havre vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Dijon?
Le Havre 2 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Le Havre vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Dijon part of?
Le Havre vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 39% chance of winning, Dijon a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Le Havre and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Dijon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.96) and Dijon's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.75x) against Le Havre's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
39%
2.59
37%
2.70
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.87
0.80
Dijon xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.80 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 5D 1L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon in 60%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Dijon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Dijon have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Dijon away?
Le Havre's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.75 PPG; Dijon away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Dijon in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Dijon?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 75%, Dijon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Le Havre) and 50% (Dijon).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Le Havre's games and 50% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Dijon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Dijon 2-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.07 xG and Dijon 0.80 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dijon landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Dijon attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 39% | Draw 37% | Dijon 24%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 20%, Dijon 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dijon's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.