Le Havre 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 4W 3D 1L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane.
Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens away from home this season: 1W 4D 2L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Le Havre. A 0.70 PPG lead over Amiens (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 33% versus Amiens 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 20% | Amiens 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.95 xG and Amiens 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.889 / defence 0.852 | Amiens attack 0.795 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Data: 15 Le Havre games / 15 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 34% | Amiens 25%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Amiens 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Amiens's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.63 combined xG gives a 22% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 38% | Amiens 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 34% | Amiens 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Le Havre 0.95 / Amiens 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.889 / def 0.852 | Amiens attack 0.795 / def 1.190 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Amiens xG
30%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Amiens kick off?
Le Havre vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Amiens?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Le Havre vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Amiens part of?
Le Havre vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Le Havre and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Amiens in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.89x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.80x) against Le Havre's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.90
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.63
0.68
Amiens xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.7 | 13.3 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.68 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 7D 2L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 2W 8D 5L from 15 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Amiens in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Amiens in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 6W 7D 2L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Amiens have gone 2W 8D 5L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Amiens away?
Le Havre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.00 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Amiens in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Le Havre
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Amiens 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Amiens?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Amiens see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 43%, Amiens 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Le Havre and 29% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Amiens in 43%; Amiens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Le Havre's recent matches and 43% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Le Havre's recent games and 29% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Amiens tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Amiens in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.95 xG and Amiens 0.68 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against Amiens attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 41% | Draw 34% | Amiens 25%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 20%, Amiens 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.