Laval 0-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 0W 3D 7L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Le Basser this season.
PAU (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Laval, 0.70 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 43% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 39% | PAU 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.14 xG and PAU 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.724 / defence 1.197 | PAU attack 1.010 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. Laval's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Laval's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Laval games / 54 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 26% | PAU 44%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | PAU 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 40% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 26% | PAU 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Laval 1.14 / PAU 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.724 / def 1.197 | PAU attack 1.010 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: PAU (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.44
PAU xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs PAU kick off?
Laval vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs PAU?
Laval 0 - 1 PAU.
Where is Laval vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs PAU part of?
Laval vs PAU is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 30% chance of winning, PAU a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Laval and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
Record (7 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 2 | PAU 3W.
What form are Laval and PAU in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. PAU (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Laval's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.01x) against Laval's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.82
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Laval xG
Total xG
2.58
1.44
PAU xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.98
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Laval and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Laval and 1.44 for PAU, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Laval's recent record stands at 17W 15D 22L from 54 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 18L across 54 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Laval against 1.30 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Laval have managed 8W 6D 12L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 5W 11D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.26 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and PAU in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 19D 18L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or PAU away?
Laval's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.15 PPG; PAU away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
2
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, PAU have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Laval 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Laval and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 46%, PAU 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Laval) and 62% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Laval's games and 65% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Laval's recent games and 62% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and PAU tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAU in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Laval 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Laval 0-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.14 xG and PAU 1.44 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.72 / defence 1.20 against PAU attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 30% | Draw 26% | PAU 44%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 39%, PAU 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.22 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.