Laval 0-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Laval face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 5D 5L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Laval 1.30 PPG, Annecy 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Laval's games and 60% of Annecy's (from Laval's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Laval have won 2, Annecy 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Laval 3–1 Annecy — a Laval win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 52% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 49% | Annecy 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.11 xG and Annecy 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.929 / defence 1.294 | Annecy attack 1.206 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Annecy have an above-average attack rating of 1.206, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Laval's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Laval's last 69 games and Annecy's last 69.
Result probabilities: Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53%. Fair-value odds: Laval 4.56 | Draw 3.95 | Annecy 1.90. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Laval's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Laval 90% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Laval 1.11 / Annecy 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.929 / def 1.294 | Annecy attack 1.206 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Annecy (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Annecy xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 0 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 22% chance of winning, Annecy a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.93) and Annecy's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 69 games and Annecy's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
22%
4.56
25%
3.95
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Laval xG
Total xG
2.92
1.81
Annecy xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
4%
27.87
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Laval and 1.81 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 69 games, going 27W 14D 28L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.17 PPG from 69 outings (20W 21D 28L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.38 PPG, Annecy on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 14W 7D 13L across their last 34 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 34 away games (7W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
Laval (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Laval vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 27W 14D 28L in their last 69 games (1.38 PPG), while Annecy have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Laval's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.44 PPG; Annecy away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Annecy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won Laval 0-3 Annecy.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 62%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Laval) and 59% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Laval's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Laval and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Laval's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Laval and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Laval's recent matches and 65% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Laval 0-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.11 xG and Annecy 1.81 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Laval fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Annecy attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 22% | Draw 25% | Annecy 53%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 49%, Annecy 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.38 PPG, Annecy 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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