Guingamp 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Saint Etienne in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 62% and Saint Etienne 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 53% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 2.02 xG and Saint Etienne 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.198 / defence 0.901 | Saint Etienne attack 1.086 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.179. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Guingamp games / 8 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 57% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 21%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Saint Etienne 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Saint Etienne 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 57% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Guingamp 2.02 / Saint Etienne 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.198 / def 0.901 | Saint Etienne attack 1.086 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Saint Etienne xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne part of?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 57% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guingamp and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.20x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.58
21%
4.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.17
1.15
Saint Etienne xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.75
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
3%
35.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.15 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 14D 12L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.91 PPG from 45 outings (9W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.77 points per game from 22 outings (3W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 14D 12L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 9W 14D 22L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Saint Etienne away?
Guingamp's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.68 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 73%, Saint Etienne at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Guingamp) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Guingamp's games and 64% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 2.02 xG and Saint Etienne 1.15 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against Saint Etienne attack 1.09 / defence 1.36, drawn from 45/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 57% | Draw 22% | Saint Etienne 21%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 53%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.