Guingamp 2-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% BTTS rate and Saint Etienne's 0% (from Guingamp's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Guingamp 3–1 Saint Etienne — a Guingamp win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 47% versus Saint Etienne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 45% | Saint Etienne 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.73 xG and Saint Etienne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.853 / defence 0.984 | Saint Etienne attack 1.122 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.141. Saint Etienne bring a tight defence (rating 0.702, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Guingamp's projected output down. Data: built from Guingamp's last 73 games and Saint Etienne's last 73.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 21% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 48%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.72 | Draw 3.30 | Saint Etienne 2.06. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Guingamp's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 30% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 0% (last 10 away games).

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