Guingamp 2-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Rodez — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.10 PPG versus Rodez's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Rodez 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 30% | Rodez 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.93 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.877 / defence 1.321 | Rodez attack 0.868 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.866 / away 1.061. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Guingamp games / 10 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 34% | Rodez 40%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Rodez 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 75% | Rodez 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 34% | Rodez 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 0.93 / Rodez 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.877 / def 1.321 | Rodez attack 0.868 / def 1.222 | league avg home 0.866 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Rodez (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Rodez xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 25% chance of winning, Rodez a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
25%
3.93
34%
2.90
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
Rodez xG
3.93
25%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.22 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 2W 5D 3L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 3L across 10 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.10 PPG, Rodez on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.10 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Rodez's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.30 PPG overall record — Rodez travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Rodez have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 0.50 PPG; Rodez away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rodez in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 75%, Rodez 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Guingamp and 25% for Rodez.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Guingamp's games and 50% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Guingamp's recent games and 25% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Rodez tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Rodez 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Rodez 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.93 xG and Rodez 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.88 / defence 1.32 against Rodez attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 25% | Draw 34% | Rodez 40%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 30%, Rodez 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.10 PPG, Rodez 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.