Guingamp 0-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.60 PPG, Reims 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Reims 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Reims in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Reims 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Reims 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.98 xG and Reims 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.964 / defence 0.879 | Reims attack 0.875 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.172. Data: 61 Guingamp games / 27 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 34% | Reims 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Reims 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 35% | Draw 34% | Reims 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Guingamp 0.98 / Reims 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.964 / def 0.879 | Reims attack 0.875 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Reims xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Reims kick off?
Guingamp vs Reims kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Reims?
Guingamp 0 - 2 Reims.
Where is Guingamp vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Reims part of?
Guingamp vs Reims is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 35% chance of winning, Reims a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Guingamp and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Reims in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Reims (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.96) and Reims's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
35%
2.87
34%
2.91
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.88
0.90
Reims xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.90 for Reims, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 27W 13D 22L from 62 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 23L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.52 PPG, Reims on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 15W 7D 9L from 31 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 8W 12D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.19 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Reims in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 27W 13D 22L in their last 62 games (1.52 PPG), while Reims have gone 19W 20D 23L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Reims away?
Guingamp's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.68 PPG; Reims away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reims in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Reims?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Guingamp 0-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 42%, Reims 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Guingamp) and 45% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Reims in 32%; Reims in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Guingamp's recent matches and 48% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Guingamp's recent games and 45% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Reims tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Guingamp 0-2 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.98 xG and Reims 0.90 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Reims outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Reims attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 35% | Draw 34% | Reims 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Reims 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.52 PPG, Reims 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.