Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
RED Star FC 93 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, RED Star FC 93 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
RED Star FC 93 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RED Star FC 93 have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus RED Star FC 93 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | RED Star FC 93 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.17 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.074 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.930 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 37 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 31% | RED Star FC 93 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | RED Star FC 93 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | RED Star FC 93 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 31% | RED Star FC 93 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.17 / RED Star FC 93 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.074 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.930 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 33% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 4W.
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.10x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RED Star FC 93's attack (0.93x) against Guingamp's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.22
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.42
1.25
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.74
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.25 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 10L across 38 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RED Star FC 93 by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 7W 5D 6L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 10W 3D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.34 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.44 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Guingamp or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RED Star FC 93 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 33%, RED Star FC 93 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Guingamp) and 50% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 44%; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Guingamp's recent matches and 39% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.