Guingamp 3-3 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Le Mans in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 9 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.90 xG and Le Mans 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.034 / defence 1.024 | Le Mans attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.112. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 0 Le Mans games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 59% | Draw 22% | Le Mans 19%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Le Mans 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 59% | Draw 22% | Le Mans 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Guingamp 1.90 / Le Mans 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.034 / def 1.024 | Le Mans attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Le Mans xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Le Mans kick off?
Guingamp vs Le Mans kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Le Mans?
Guingamp 3 - 3 Le Mans.
Where is Guingamp vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Le Mans part of?
Guingamp vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 59% chance of winning, Le Mans a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guingamp and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Mans?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Le Mans in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Le Mans's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Le Mans's attack (0.85x) against Guingamp's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.54
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.87
0.97
Le Mans xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
35.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.97 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Le Mans?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Pre-Season
Le Mans
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Le Mans have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Le Mans 1-1 Guingamp.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Guingamp and Le Mans share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Le Mans finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.90 xG and Le Mans 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Mans outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Le Mans attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 59% | Draw 22% | Le Mans 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.