Grenoble 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade des Alpes plays host to Grenoble versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Grenoble (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bastia have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Bastia's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bastia are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Grenoble 0W, Bastia 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Grenoble — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 31% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grenoble 34% | Bastia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 0.89 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.716 / defence 1.259 | Bastia attack 1.030 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Grenoble games / 29 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 27% | Draw 31% | Bastia 42%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Bastia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 40% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 27% | Draw 31% | Bastia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Grenoble 0.89 / Bastia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.716 / def 1.259 | Bastia attack 1.030 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Bastia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bastia xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Bastia kick off?
Grenoble vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Bastia?
Grenoble 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Grenoble vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Bastia part of?
Grenoble vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 27% chance of winning, Bastia a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Grenoble and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 1 | Bastia 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Bastia in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 0.72x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (1.03x) against Grenoble's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
27%
3.66
31%
3.27
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.08
1.18
Bastia xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.18 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 9W 5D 15L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Grenoble against 1.24 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 1D 9L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grenoble are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.00 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Bastia in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Bastia have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Bastia away?
Grenoble's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.43 PPG; Bastia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grenoble have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Grenoble
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Bastia 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 36%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Grenoble) and 50% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Grenoble's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Grenoble's recent games and 50% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Bastia tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bastia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 0.89 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Bastia attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 27% | Draw 31% | Bastia 42%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 34%, Bastia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.10 PPG, Bastia 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.