Estac Troyes 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bastia travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Estac Troyes have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 2, Bastia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bastia trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 30% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 51% | Bastia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.76 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.500 / defence 0.805 | Bastia attack 0.512 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.281. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.500 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Estac Troyes games / 43 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 67% | Draw 22% | Bastia 11%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Bastia 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.53 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 40% | Bastia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 67% | Draw 22% | Bastia 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 34% | xG Estac Troyes 1.76 / Bastia 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.500 / def 0.805 | Bastia attack 0.512 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Bastia xG
34%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bastia kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Estac Troyes 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bastia part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 67% chance of winning, Bastia a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 2W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bastia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (1.50) and Bastia's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
67%
1.48
22%
4.54
11%
9.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.29
0.53
Bastia xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
9.51
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
2%
55.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 9.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.53 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 19W 7D 17L from 43 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 19D 13L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.49 PPG, Bastia on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 12W 4D 6L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 2W 10D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.09 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 19W 7D 17L in their last 43 games (1.49 PPG), while Bastia have gone 11W 19D 13L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bastia away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.82 PPG; Bastia away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bastia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Estac Troyes 23% BTTS, Bastia 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 23% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 41% of games; Bastia in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 36% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 23% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bastia tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bastia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.76 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.50 / defence 0.81 against Bastia attack 0.51 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 67% | Draw 22% | Bastia 11%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 51%, Bastia 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.49 PPG, Bastia 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.