Dunkerque 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Paris FC meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel-Tribut: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Paris FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Paris FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dunkerque have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Paris FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dunkerque 0W, Paris FC 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Paris FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 40% versus Paris FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 35% | Paris FC 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Paris FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.628 / defence 1.064 | Paris FC attack 1.028 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.998. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.628 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Dunkerque games / 20 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 22% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 2.22. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Paris FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 22% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Dunkerque 0.67 / Paris FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.628 / def 1.064 | Paris FC attack 1.028 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Paris FC xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Paris FC kick off?
Dunkerque vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 January 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Paris FC?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Dunkerque vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Paris FC part of?
Dunkerque vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 22% chance of winning, Paris FC a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Dunkerque and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Paris FC in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.63x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (1.03x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
22%
4.56
33%
3.03
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.76
1.09
Paris FC xG
4.56
22%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.59
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 18.8 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.09 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 4W 5D 11L from 20 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 4D 5L across 20 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 6W 0D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.35 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.90 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Paris FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Paris FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Dunkerque 1-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Dunkerque) and 30% (Paris FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Dunkerque and 40% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Paris FC in 40%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 60% of games; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 30% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Dunkerque's recent games and 40% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Paris FC tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.67 xG and Paris FC 1.09 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.63 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 22% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 45%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 35%, Paris FC 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Paris FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.