Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Guingamp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.70 for Guingamp. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Dunkerque, 4 for Guingamp and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 45% | Guingamp 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.79 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.222 / defence 0.951 | Guingamp attack 1.177 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.163. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Dunkerque games / 55 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Guingamp 3.57. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 6 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Dunkerque 1.79 / Guingamp 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.222 / def 0.951 | Guingamp attack 1.177 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Guingamp xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Guingamp kick off?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 February 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Dunkerque 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Dunkerque vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Guingamp part of?
Dunkerque vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 49% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Dunkerque and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Dunkerque 3W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 1.22x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.18x) against Dunkerque's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.32
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
3.09
1.30
Guingamp xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.30 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 27W 11D 18L from 56 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 21L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Dunkerque against 1.55 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 18W 4D 6L from 28 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Dunkerque are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Guingamp's away record stands at 12W 3D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dunkerque are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.61 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 27W 11D 18L in their last 56 games (1.64 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 9D 21L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Guingamp away?
Dunkerque's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 2.07 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Dunkerque
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 3, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 46%, Guingamp 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dunkerque) and 64% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 61% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dunkerque's matches and 64% of Guingamp's.
Do Dunkerque and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dunkerque's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Guingamp finished level at 0-0 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.79 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 49% | Draw 23% | Guingamp 28%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 45%, Guingamp 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.64 PPG, Guingamp 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.